Japanese September production likely plummeted as supply disruptions hit automakers (Reuters poll)



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TOKYO: Production at Japanese factories likely fell in September as supply chain disruptions continued to hit automakers, Reuters poll found, raising expectations that growth in the world’s third-largest economy has picked up sharply slowed down in the third trimester.

Rising commodity prices and China’s faltering recovery have recently added to the headaches for Japanese manufacturers, clouding the outlook for the export-dependent economy, analysts said.

“Power outages and skyrocketing production costs in China are further hurdles to recovery from the pandemic, in addition to spare parts supply issues in coronavirus-stricken Southeast Asia and the global shortage. sustainable semiconductor, ”said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute.

Industrial production likely fell 3.2% in September month-on-month after falling 3.6% in August, according to a Reuters poll of 14 economists.

Separate data should also show retail sales fell 2.3% in September from a year earlier, following a 3.2% drop in August, according to the poll.

“Consumer sentiment improved to some extent when the infection (COVID-19) peaked, but weak car sales driven by the supply limit put downward pressure.” , Takumi Tsunoda, Senior Economist at the Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.

The bundle of weak data would underline the challenges facing new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling party ahead of the October 31 general election.

The government will release retail sales data on October 28 at 8:50 a.m. (7:50 a.m. Singapore time) and industrial production figures on October 29 at 8:50 a.m. (7:50 a.m. Singapore time).

Japan’s employment data is expected to show an unemployment rate of 2.8% in September and a job-to-candidate ratio of 1.14, according to the poll, roughly unchanged from August.

The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) – a leading indicator of price inflation nationwide – likely rose 0.3% in October from a year earlier, after gaining 0.1% the previous month.

Tokyo CPI jobs and data will be released on October 29 at 8:30 a.m. (7:30 a.m. Singapore time).

The Japanese economy has emerged from the slump caused by last year’s pandemic, as robust exports offset some of the weakness in consumption. However, analysts now expect the economy to grow only 0.8% from July to September on an annualized basis, from 1.9% from April to June, in part due to the slowdown in factory production.

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